CT Radiomics, Radiologists, and Clinical Information in Predicting Outcome of Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia.

PURPOSE: To compare prediction of disease outcome, severity, and patient triage in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia with whole lung radiomics, radiologists' interpretation, and clinical variables. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This institutional review board-approved retrospective study included 315 adult patients (mean age, 56 years [range, 21-100 years], 190 men, 125 women) with COVID-19 pneumonia who underwent noncontrast chest CT. All patients (inpatients, n = 210; outpatients, n = 105) were followed-up for at least 2 weeks to record disease outcome. Clinical variables, such as presenting symptoms, laboratory data, peripheral oxygen saturation, and comorbid diseases, were recorded. Two radiologists assessed each CT in consensus and graded the extent of pulmonary involvement (by percentage of involved lobe) and type of opacities within each lobe. Radiomics were obtained for the entire lung, and multiple logistic regression analyses with areas under the curve (AUCs) as outputs were performed. RESULTS: Most patients (276/315, 88%) recovered from COVID-19 pneumonia; 36/315 patients (11%) died, and 3/315 patients (1%) remained admitted in the hospital. Radiomics differentiated chest CT in outpatient versus inpatient with an AUC of 0.84 (P < .005), while radiologists' interpretations of disease extent and opacity type had an AUC of 0.69 (P < .0001). Whole lung radiomics were superior to the radiologists' interpretation for predicting patient outcome in terms of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (AUC: 0.75 vs 0.68) and death (AUC: 0.81 vs 0.68) (P < .002). The addition of clinical variables to radiomics improved the AUC to 0.84 for predicting ICU admission. CONCLUSION: Radiomics from noncontrast chest CT were superior to radiologists' assessment of extent and type of pulmonary opacities in predicting COVID-19 pneumonia outcome, disease severity, and patient triage.© RSNA, 2020.

Multicenter Assessment of CT Pneumonia Analysis Prototype for Predicting Disease Severity and Patient Outcome.

To perform a multicenter assessment of the CT Pneumonia Analysis prototype for predicting disease severity and patient outcome in COVID-19 pneumonia both without and with integration of clinical information. Our IRB-approved observational study included consecutive 241 adult patients (> 18 years; 105 females; 136 males) with RT-PCR-positive COVID-19 pneumonia who underwent non-contrast chest CT at one of the two tertiary care hospitals (site A: Massachusetts General Hospital, USA; site B: Firoozgar Hospital Iran). We recorded patient age, gender, comorbid conditions, laboratory values, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and final outcome (recovery or death). Two thoracic radiologists reviewed all chest CTs to record type, extent of pulmonary opacities based on the percentage of lobe involved, and severity of respiratory motion artifacts. Thin-section CT images were processed with the prototype (Siemens Healthineers) to obtain quantitative features including lung volumes, volume and percentage of all-type and high-attenuation opacities (≥ -200 HU), and mean HU and standard deviation of opacities within a given lung region. These values are estimated for the total combined lung volume, and separately for each lung and each lung lobe. Multivariable analyses of variance (MANOVA) and multiple logistic regression were performed for data analyses. About 26% of chest CTs (62/241) had moderate to severe motion artifacts. There were no significant differences in the AUCs of quantitative features for predicting disease severity with and without motion artifacts (AUC 0.94-0.97) as well as for predicting patient outcome (AUC 0.7-0.77) (p > 0.5). Combination of the volume of all-attenuation opacities and the percentage of high-attenuation opacities (AUC 0.76-0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.82) had higher AUC for predicting ICU admission than the subjective severity scores (AUC 0.69-0.77, 95% CI 0.69-0.81). Despite a high frequency of motion artifacts, quantitative features of pulmonary opacities from chest CT can help differentiate patients with favorable and adverse outcomes.

A multi-center study of COVID-19 patient prognosis using deep learning-based CT image analysis and electronic health records.

PURPOSE: As of August 30th, there were in total 25.1 million confirmed cases and 845 thousand deaths caused by coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. With overwhelming demands on medical resources, patient stratification based on their risks is essential. In this multi-center study, we built prognosis models to predict severity outcomes, combining patients' electronic health records (EHR), which included vital signs and laboratory data, with deep learning- and CT-based severity prediction. METHOD: We first developed a CT segmentation network using datasets from multiple institutions worldwide. Two biomarkers were extracted from the CT images: total opacity ratio (TOR) and consolidation ratio (CR). After obtaining TOR and CR, further prognosis analysis was conducted on datasets from INSTITUTE-1, INSTITUTE-2 and INSTITUTE-3. For each data cohort, generalized linear model (GLM) was applied for prognosis prediction. RESULTS: For the deep learning model, the correlation coefficient of the network prediction and manual segmentation was 0.755, 0.919, and 0.824 for the three cohorts, respectively. The AUC (95 % CI) of the final prognosis models was 0.85(0.77,0.92), 0.93(0.87,0.98), and 0.86(0.75,0.94) for INSTITUTE-1, INSTITUTE-2 and INSTITUTE-3 cohorts, respectively. Either TOR or CR exist in all three final prognosis models. Age, white blood cell (WBC), and platelet (PLT) were chosen predictors in two cohorts. Oxygen saturation (SpO2) was a chosen predictor in one cohort. CONCLUSION: The developed deep learning method can segment lung infection regions. Prognosis results indicated that age, SpO2, CT biomarkers, PLT, and WBC were the most important prognostic predictors of COVID-19 in our prognosis model.

Artificial intelligence matches subjective severity assessment of pneumonia for prediction of patient outcome and need for mechanical ventilation: a cohort study.

To compare the performance of artificial intelligence (AI) and Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) scores from frontal chest radiographs (CXRs) for predicting patient outcomes and the need for mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 pneumonia. Our IRB-approved study included 1367 serial CXRs from 405 adult patients (mean age 65 ± 16 years) from two sites in the US (Site A) and South Korea (Site B). We recorded information pertaining to patient demographics (age, gender), smoking history, comorbid conditions (such as cancer, cardiovascular and other diseases), vital signs (temperature, oxygen saturation), and available laboratory data (such as WBC count and CRP). Two thoracic radiologists performed the qualitative assessment of all CXRs based on the RALE score for assessing the severity of lung involvement. All CXRs were processed with a commercial AI algorithm to obtain the percentage of the lung affected with findings related to COVID-19 (AI score). Independent t- and chi-square tests were used in addition to multiple logistic regression with Area Under the Curve (AUC) as output for predicting disease outcome and the need for mechanical ventilation. The RALE and AI scores had a strong positive correlation in CXRs from each site (r2 = 0.79-0.86; p < 0.0001). Patients who died or received mechanical ventilation had significantly higher RALE and AI scores than those with recovery or without the need for mechanical ventilation (p < 0.001). Patients with a more substantial difference in baseline and maximum RALE scores and AI scores had a higher prevalence of death and mechanical ventilation (p < 0.001). The addition of patients' age, gender, WBC count, and peripheral oxygen saturation increased the outcome prediction from 0.87 to 0.94 (95% CI 0.90-0.97) for RALE scores and from 0.82 to 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.95) for the AI scores. AI algorithm is as robust a predictor of adverse patient outcome (death or need for mechanical ventilation) as subjective RALE scores in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Association of AI quantified COVID-19 chest CT and patient outcome.

PURPOSE: Severity scoring is a key step in managing patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. However, manual quantitative analysis by radiologists is a time-consuming task, while qualitative evaluation may be fast but highly subjective. This study aims to develop artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods to quantify disease severity and predict COVID-19 patient outcome. METHODS: We develop an AI-based framework that employs deep neural networks to efficiently segment lung lobes and pulmonary opacities. The volume ratio of pulmonary opacities inside each lung lobe gives the severity scores of the lobes, which are then used to predict ICU admission and mortality with three different machine learning methods. The developed methods were evaluated on datasets from two hospitals (site A: Firoozgar Hospital, Iran, 105 patients; site B: Massachusetts General Hospital, USA, 88 patients). RESULTS: AI-based severity scores are strongly associated with those evaluated by radiologists (Spearman's rank correlation 0.837, [Formula: see text]). Using AI-based scores produced significantly higher ([Formula: see text]) area under the ROC curve (AUC) values. The developed AI method achieved the best performance of AUC = 0.813 (95% CI [0.729, 0.886]) in predicting ICU admission and AUC = 0.741 (95% CI [0.640, 0.837]) in mortality estimation on the two datasets. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate severity scores can be obtained using the developed AI methods over chest CT images. The computed severity scores achieved better performance than radiologists in predicting COVID-19 patient outcome by consistently quantifying image features. Such developed techniques of severity assessment may be extended to other lung diseases beyond the current pandemic.

Integrative analysis for COVID-19 patient outcome prediction.

While image analysis of chest computed tomography (CT) for COVID-19 diagnosis has been intensively studied, little work has been performed for image-based patient outcome prediction. Management of high-risk patients with early intervention is a key to lower the fatality rate of COVID-19 pneumonia, as a majority of patients recover naturally. Therefore, an accurate prediction of disease progression with baseline imaging at the time of the initial presentation can help in patient management. In lieu of only size and volume information of pulmonary abnormalities and features through deep learning based image segmentation, here we combine radiomics of lung opacities and non-imaging features from demographic data, vital signs, and laboratory findings to predict need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission. To our knowledge, this is the first study that uses holistic information of a patient including both imaging and non-imaging data for outcome prediction. The proposed methods were thoroughly evaluated on datasets separately collected from three hospitals, one in the United States, one in Iran, and another in Italy, with a total 295 patients with reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay positive COVID-19 pneumonia. Our experimental results demonstrate that adding non-imaging features can significantly improve the performance of prediction to achieve AUC up to 0.884 and sensitivity as high as 96.1%, which can be valuable to provide clinical decision support in managing COVID-19 patients. Our methods may also be applied to other lung diseases including but not limited to community acquired pneumonia. The source code of our work is available at https://github.com/DIAL-RPI/COVID19-ICUPrediction.

Integrative Analysis for COVID-19 Patient Outcome Prediction.

While image analysis of chest computed tomography (CT) for COVID-19 diagnosis has been intensively studied, little work has been performed for image-based patient outcome prediction. Management of high-risk patients with early intervention is a key to lower the fatality rate of COVID-19 pneumonia, as a majority of patients recover naturally. Therefore, an accurate prediction of disease progression with baseline imaging at the time of the initial presentation can help in patient management. In lieu of only size and volume information of pulmonary abnormalities and features through deep learning based image segmentation, here we combine radiomics of lung opacities and non-imaging features from demographic data, vital signs, and laboratory findings to predict need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission. To our knowledge, this is the first study that uses holistic information of a patient including both imaging and non-imaging data for outcome prediction. The proposed methods were thoroughly evaluated on datasets separately collected from three hospitals, one in the United States, one in Iran, and another in Italy, with a total 295 patients with reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay positive COVID-19 pneumonia. Our experimental results demonstrate that adding non-imaging features can significantly improve the performance of prediction to achieve AUC up to 0.884 and sensitivity as high as 96.1%, which can be valuable to provide clinical decision support in managing COVID-19 patients. Our methods may also be applied to other lung diseases including but not limited to community acquired pneumonia.

Clinical and imaging features predict mortality in COVID-19 infection in Iran.

The new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has challenged many healthcare systems around the world. While most of the current understanding of the clinical features of COVID-19 is derived from Chinese studies, there is a relative paucity of reports from the remaining global health community. In this study, we analyze the clinical and radiologic factors that correlate with mortality odds in COVID-19 positive patients from a tertiary care center in Tehran, Iran. A retrospective cohort study of 90 patients with reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positive COVID-19 infection was conducted, analyzing demographics, co-morbidities, presenting symptoms, vital signs, laboratory values, chest radiograph findings, and chest CT features based on mortality. Chest radiograph was assessed using the Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) scoring system. Chest CTs were assessed according to the opacification pattern, distribution, and standardized severity score. Initial and follow-up Chest CTs were compared if available. Multiple logistic regression was used to generate a prediction model for mortality. The 90 patients included 59 men and 31 women (59.4 ± 16.6 years), including 21 deceased and 69 surviving patients. Among clinical features, advanced age (p = 0.02), low oxygenation saturation (p<0.001), leukocytosis (p = 0.02), low lymphocyte fraction (p = 0.03), and low platelet count (p = 0.048) were associated with increased mortality. High RALE score on initial chest radiograph (p = 0.002), presence of pleural effusions on initial CT chest (p = 0.005), development of pleural effusions on follow-up CT chest (p = 0.04), and worsening lung severity score on follow-up CT Chest (p = 0.03) were associated with mortality. A two-factor logistic model using patient age and oxygen saturation was created, which demonstrates 89% accuracy and area under the ROC curve of 0.86 (p<0.0001). Specific demographic, clinical, and imaging features are associated with increased mortality in COVID-19 infections. Attention to these features can help optimize patient management.

Computed Tomography Radiomics Can Predict Disease Severity and Outcome in Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pneumonia.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to assess if computed tomography (CT) radiomics can predict the severity and outcome of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. METHODS: This institutional ethical board-approved study included 92 patients (mean age, 59 ± 17 years; 57 men, 35 women) with positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assay for COVID-19 infection who underwent noncontrast chest CT. Two radiologists evaluated all chest CT examinations and recorded opacity type, distribution, and extent of lobar involvement. Information on symptom duration before hospital admission, the period of hospital admission, presence of comorbid conditions, laboratory data, and outcomes (recovery or death) was obtained from the medical records. The entire lung volume was segmented on thin-section Digital Imaging and Communication in Medicine images to derive whole-lung radiomics. Data were analyzed using multiple logistic regression with receiver operator characteristic area under the curve (AUC) as the output. RESULTS: Computed tomography radiomics (AUC, 0.99) outperformed clinical variables (AUC, 0.89) for prediction of the extent of pulmonary opacities related to COVID-19 pneumonia. Type of pulmonary opacities could be predicted with CT radiomics (AUC, 0.77) but not with clinical or laboratory data (AUC, <0.56; P > 0.05). Prediction of patient outcome with radiomics (AUC, 0.85) improved to an AUC of 0.90 with the addition of clinical variables (patient age and duration of presenting symptoms before admission). Among clinical variables, the combination of peripheral capillary oxygen saturation on hospital admission, duration of symptoms, platelet counts, and patient age provided an AUC of 0.81 for predicting patient outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Radiomics from noncontrast CT reliably predict disease severity (AUC, 0.99) and outcome (AUC, 0.85) in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.